Don't belive the hype

Thursday 11th February 2010

There are two colours to avoid as a punter. They're black and white.

I'm not suggesting you should never back Newcastle United - far from it. They're doing alright this season. No. I'm merely suggesting that things are rarely as clear cut as some people would have you believe.

In British sport it seems teams and players are either brilliant or useless with nothing in between. Clearly that's nonsense. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

I point this out after one full round of Super League matches. Big winners like Wigan and Warrington are now being hyped to the hilt. Big losers like Harlequins are now being totally written off.

Betting heavily on the basis of one match is among the cardinal sins of punting. If want an example of the folly of getting too carried away too early, cast your mind back 12 months.

In 2009, Hull won their first game at home to Wigan. The Black and Whites won their next four matches as well and were installed as third favourites for the title. Richard Agar's men won just five of the remaining 17 fixtures and finished 12th.

Catalans lost their first game heavily to Huddersfield and were beaten six times in the opening seven matches. Yet the Dragons got to within 80 minutes of the Grand Final.

Don't believe the hype or the tripe.

Right. Let's have a look at Friday's fixtures...

The Sky Sports cameras are at the DW Stadium for Wigan versus Hull KR. Rovers have made four Super League trips to this ground and won on three of them. Even the solitary loss was by only six points. Rovers looked very solid in their win over Salford which didn't generate very many headlines but was a good effort nevertheless.

Wigan got rid of the Crusaders very easily but the value of that form is questionable. The one thing threatening to put me off backing KR is the short turn around - just five days compared to the Warriors' seven. However I will risk a few quid on Justin Morgan's men with the start.

It's a similar story in the Hull - Huddersfield match. The Black and Whites received plenty of plaudits for winning at Saints. The Giants far fewer for beating Bradford. I thought Nathan Brown's boys looked very efficient - exactly as they did last year. Everyone is talking about Hull mounting a Grand Final challenge but let's not get carried away here.

St Helens threw in a shocker last Saturday and I'm not sure how good Hull actually were. I'm not sure anyone is actually because no one could see what was going on due to the fog. Anyway which way, Huddersfield look a cracking bet with six start and I for one will be backing them. Last year they finished nine places and 16 points above Hull - that's a lot to turn round in my book.

Finally, what about the battle at the bottom between Salford and Crusaders? I was surprised to see the odds on this game with the City Reds 1-4 and the Crusaders 7-2. That seems a very big discrepancy to me in what could be a very tight game in far from perfect conditions. Both sides know the importance of this match. Already it looks like something of a wooden spoon decider.

Salford don't look like a side built to pile up big scores and I reckon the Welsh outfit are a fair bet with a handicap start of two converted tries.

Recommendations
3pts Huddersfield+6 4-5
2pts Hull KR +8 10-11
2pts Crusaders +12 10-11